Balkanisation

Mexico is witnessing a surge in cartel violence. It was reported this week that at least 35 people were killed over the weekend alone in Sinaloa, Michoacán, Guerrero and Veracruz.

Unfortunately, stats are showing that cartel-related violence is at its highest level since 2011. Many are blaming the current government, in particular President Peña Nieto, for taking its eye off containing the cartels. Others blame systematic corruption of government, police and military officials, who are ‘bought’ by cartels.

A Mexican source I spoke to recently put forward another theory. They believe that violence is increasing due to the strategy of going directly after cartel bosses, for example El Chapo, who was arrested last year and extradited to the US. According to the source, “if you take away the leader, a vacuum is left and infighting ensues as groups splinter and fight over the same patch of territory to gain control”.

The geopolitical intelligence company Stratfor has referred to the splintering of groups as ‘Balkanization’ – the trend which sees nationwide cartel groups decrease in size and become localised (sometimes working nationally in alliances).

There is, however, little loyalty in the cartel sphere. If one group sees a better opportunity elsewhere, alliances are broken and bloodshed reignites, as we have seen with the Sinaloa Cartel and Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion. Once allies against Los Zetas, they are now in a bloody fight for control of the Central Pacific Coast region of Mexico.

Balkanization is also aided by bosses clipping the wings of potential successors – they do not want anyone in the group to flex their muscles and topple them. For example, Los Zetas, a group of ex-soldiers, was the enforcement arm of the Gulf cartel but gained enough power to split from, and declare war against, their former masters and ultimately surpass them.

It is easy to critique the strategy but the Mexican government is stuck between a rock and a hard place. Capturing or killing cartel bosses in a strong statement and clearly shows the populace that action is being taken. The strategy also requires fewer military resources as Mexican intelligence and special forces can work together on smaller operations. Fewer personnel are required than engaging in firefights with cartel foot soldiers on the ground.